Well, I finally did it! I finally went 4-0 in my Four Points of a Triangle predictions. Plus, it only took 3 weeks to do so! So, I am retiring. I made it to the top and now I am going to bow out. Ha! What fun would that be! That is the beauty of college football, the lows and the highs and eventually the lows again. Anyways, all four triangle teams won this past weekend. NC State and Wake Forest did so pretty easily, Duke held on late to earn a victory and North Carolina lit up the scoreboard like many predicted they would do all season long. But this weekend is a new weekend, new opponents, new schemes, and new expectations so lets jump right in!
Wake Forest @ Virginia (Friday Sept. 24th – 7pm)
I don’t think too many people would have thought at the start of the season that one of the marquee ACC match-ups in Week 4 would be Wake Forest at Virginia, but here we are. Maybe to some fans’ surprise these two teams are really good, but anyone who has watched either of these teams play this season would know that by now. The Demon Deacons and Cavaliers can both put a lot of points on the scoreboard and their defenses can shut opponents down when needed. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman and Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong both can sling the ball all over the field and rack up some impressive yardage totals, but for the most part they are fairly even. Based on that the quarterback position is a net zero, where no one has a large advantage in this one. Like I mentioned earlier the defenses both are stingy. Wake Forest has only allowed 13.3 pts/gm while Virginia has allowed 24.3 pts/gm in 2021, but that is inflated some for UVA due to UNC hanging 59 on them last week. Their defense is better than that, and the WF offense is good but it is not UNC good. So what will set one team apart from the other in this one? Home field advantage. Wake Forest has not played away from Truist Field all season. This will be their first road test of 2021 and there has not been this kind of buzz around the Cavalier football program in several years. Scott Stadium will be loud and rowdy for this one on Friday night and think that helps get the Wahoos their third victory of the season.
Prediction: Virginia 34, Wake Forest 27
#9 Clemson @ NC State (Saturday Sept. 25th – 3:30pm)
This one has been a long time coming. If you are an NC State fan, think carefully if you are going to click the video link above, 2016 might trigger some of you. Yes, that’s right, Clemson heads to Raleigh this weekend, but there is something different about this one compared to years past. Ever since 2016, when NC State had a win in Death Valley against the #3 Tigers handed to them on a sliver platter and couldn’t close the deal, the Wolfpack have been trying to shake the demon of that day and thus far haven’t. But 2021 might be that year! Clemson is still Clemson. A tough, well-coached team that knows how to find its way to victory. However, thus far this year the Tigers have looked….dare I say, less than. After their opening weekend loss against Georgia, no one blames them there for losing to a CFP contender, they bounced back against South Carolina State. However, last week they struggled mightily against Georgia Tech in Death Valley, winning 14-8. Not very Clemson like. However, don’t forget that NC State has to get over the hurdle of Clemson, not Clemson getting over the hurdle of NC State.
The Wolfpack have looked good this season, but did have one big hiccup against Mississippi State in Week 2. Dave Doeren’s team certainly has a leader in QB Devin Leary and can win through attacking the air or pounding the rock through their two-headed monster of Bam Knight and Ricky Person in the ground game. In the end, two key factors will determine this one.
Number 1 – Can NC State control the clock? If the Wolfpack can have long sustained drives that end in points, obviously touchdowns over field goals, then they can shorten the game and keep it close late giving them and ideal chance to win.
Number 2 – Can NC State get to Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei? Let’s be honest: Uiagalelei is a step down from Trevor Lawrence. But beyond that, he has not looked comfortable thus far. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and been sacked seven times. Even with NC State linebacker Payton Wilson out for the season, the likes of LB Drake Thomas and LB Isaiah Moore have the ability and football IQ to step up and put pressure, hits and sacks on Uiagalelei. If the Pack defense can get to the Clemson QB then that only increases their odds of pulling off the upset. If those two things can be done then NC State has a shot. Will it be done? I SAY IT WILL! The Wolfpack finally get that Clemson monkey off their back and at the end of this one there just might be a goal post being marched down Hillsborough Street in Raleigh. Wolfpack pull off the upset in this one!
Prediction: NC State 21, Clemson 17
Kansas @ Duke (Saturday Sept. 25th – 4pm)
Kansas at Duke? We talking basketball now? Nope, sorry to disappoint. It’s a match-up of Kansas and Duke football. Historically, neither program is very good when it comes to football, but one of these teams is starting to trend on an upward trajectory. That team would be the Duke Blue Devils. Duke comes in to this one as 2-1, with their only loss being a last minute heartbreaking loss to Charlotte. Other than that Duke has looked decent. Duke QB Gunnar Holmberg turned a corner last week against Northwestern by throwing for over 300 yards, while adding 1 touchdown and 1 interception. This was by far Holmberg’s best game and came at a much needed time against a competitive Northwestern team. Kansas on the other hand has struggled in all three games of the 2021 season.
The Jayhawks narrowly beat FCS school South Dakota in Week 1 and it has been down hill from there, losing to Coastal Carolina and Baylor is subsequent weeks. The biggest problem for Kansas is that their opponents out gain them by roughly 2-to-1 in yardage (Kansas averages 274 yards a game while their opponents average 433 yards a game). You can’t win too many games doing that. Kansas is going to struggle to stop Duke’s big 3: RB Mateo Durant, QB Gunnar Holmberg and WR Jake Bobo. I don’t see a high points total in this one but do feel confident in the Blue Devils coming out on top.
Prediction: Duke 31, Kansas 10
#21 North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (Saturday Sept. 25th – 7:30pm)
North Carolina and Georgia Tech both had extremely competitive games last week, just on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Tar Heels needed to score almost 60 to top Virginia, while Georgia Tech nearly pulled off the upset against Clemson in a defensive struggle but fell short by a score of 14-8. This one will start out competitive, especially if it takes Sam Howell and company a drive or two to get clicking. Also don’t forget about the stud trio of linebackers that Georgia Tech has, Ayinde Eley, Quez Jackson and Charlie Thomas (these 3 players have a combined 76 tackles through 3 games). Those three alone can keep it close for the Yellow Jackets early on. But in the end, that the Georgia Tech defense will fade while the North Carolina offense rises to the top. Georgia Tech does not have the type of offense to keep up with Carolina’s and at the final whistle the Tar Heels will be victorious.
Prediction: North Carolina 35, Georgia Tech 16
Follow me on Twitter at @SJWoolard for more ACC content and Week 5 predictions next week.
